I think it is clear we have many huge challenges coming at us. To have a hope of meeting them, we must be honest about our predicament and shine a light on some elephants lurking in the room.
We must face the sad reality we have failed our Te Tiriti o Waitangi obligations and outside the conservation estate have failed to protect the life-supporting capacity of New Zealand’s freshwaters.
Almost all our lowland rivers, lakes, groundwater and estuaries are severely impacted and in many cases have gone past tipping points, past any hope of recovery.
Global comparisons of our environmental performance clearly reveal we deserve to be pariahs. Based on natural forest lost, habitat conversion, marine captures, fertiliser use, water pollution, carbon emissions and proportion of threatened species, we are in the worst 25 percent of all countries per capita and per area. Worse still, this has happened in a very short time compared with nearly all other countries.
There is no sign we have come even close to stopping the freshwater degradation, let alone improving it. In sharp contrast to the Covid-19 pandemic, the advice of independent scientists has been largely ignored, so you can expect things to continue to worsen.
Unquestionably, the biggest driver of the degradation of our waterways has been the uncontrolled intensification of agriculture, primarily dairy.
It is far from just a freshwater issue. Other concerns include greenhouse gas emissions, animal health, animal welfare, antibiotic, pesticide and herbicide use, and now the emerging human health issues with drinking water.
Research will soon be published about the link between nitrogen in drinking water and cancer rates, revealing that many New Zealanders are receiving drinking water with nitrate levels high enough to give a significant increased risk of colon cancer. The increased nitrate in water has come from agricultural intensification and to make it worse from synthetic nitrogen created using fossil fuels, one third from Taranaki and two thirds from the Middle East.
I am convinced in the future we will look back and see dairy production in the way we do it now is the worst possible land use for this country.
As for the industry’s ‘backbone of the economy’ rhetoric, it simply does not bear scrutiny. When the externalities – that is, the harm done to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, drinking water and our atmosphere – are included in analyses, dairy farming adds up to a negative outcome for all New Zealanders.
I cannot see any hope the dairy industry will be part of a sensible reduction in intensity, given with all its milk-drying infrastructure it is locked into a high-volume, low-value milk powder model. Fertiliser companies will keep fighting tooth and claw to sell their products and attempt to block research showing better outcomes without them.
When it comes to finding a way out of this dilemma, I believe it will come from the ground up – that is, from farmers, hopefully with the support of government and civil society. We can see a glimmer of that already with the rise of regenerative farming systems.
As a freshwater ecologist with decades of experience studying New Zealand’s waterways, I want to make it clear we do not need to spend money to fix the environment. What we need to do is get rid of the failed system that allowed it to be harmed in the first place.
You do not create wetlands; you stop draining them.
You do not ‘clean up’ rivers; you stop polluting them.
We must drastically reduce dairy intensity, because with current stocking rates it is not possible to honour Te Tiriti, transition to zero carbon, have swimmable and fishable rivers or have drinkable water for all.
A low-intensity, highly diverse farming model is our only good future.
This model will mean much better lives for farmers and animals, a stronger real economy and a healthier environment. It will reinvigorate rural communities and help break down the rural–urban divide.
Stimulus money for agriculture should be spent on reducing the risk for farmers transitioning to regenerative farming, on education and guidance, and on investment into finding new products and markets.
