New Zealand’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic ranks us top of 24 countries, according to business decision-makers across Asia Pacific in the latest survey by Bloomberg, the business news service. We’re followed by Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and China in the top five.
We’ve held on to our number one slot from the previous survey in June, with China joining the top five, while Australia has dropped from fourth to sixth because of its strong second wave of infections.
The survey measures responses across the four pillars in Bloomberg’s Market Crisis Management Index: “political/governance stability; tactical measures in economic reopening; healthcare and containment to handle the pandemic crisis; and peoples’ and society’s spirit and resilience in uncertain times.”
In the latest survey, undertaken in mid to late August, we outscored the other 23 countries on all four measures. We totalled 238 points, while the UK was ninth with 110, the US 10th with 100 and Spain, the poorest performing developed country, was 20th with 47. From the first to the second survey, we lost only 1 point, while Australia lost 20.
No survey, however comprehensive, can give us a definitive, well-rounded view of our performance as a nation. But this one is a good indication we are working well together to navigate through incredibly complicated, new and fast moving pandemic and related economic challenges.
The future, though, will be far harder in some respects. The pandemic will morph and surge in unpredictable ways; and recovery to some semblance of where we were would fail to solve our deeply entrenched economic, social and environmental problems.
We will fail if, for example, we lifted wages but didn’t reduce inequality; or built more houses but made our cities less liveable and more dependent on fossil fuels; or exported more food but failed to recover our ecosystems, biodiversity and clean green reputation.
So to solve our problems and deliver on our opportunities we’ll have to work together like never before – ever more creatively, confidently and quickly across the great complexity of inter-connected issues.
However, people vary greatly by nature and experience. To make a sweeping generalisation across a broad spectrum, some apply their personal values to the good of individuals, to incremental change and to isolated issues; others apply their values to collective, brisk and systemic change which seeks to solve complex, inter-connected issues.
That range of conservative to progressive approaches to government is on full display in the policies and promises our political parties are offering us in this election:
– The new, small conservative parties have the simplest orthodoxies, which they apply only to selected issues.
– ACT addresses most issues but applies its ideology in superficial ways rather than dealing with the complexity of problems.
– National is more flexible with its core values in this election than in some previous ones but it is resurrecting some partial and ineffective solutions to old problems while failing to come up with effective answers to complex, inter-dependent new ones such as economic recovery and the climate crisis.
– Labour tries to apply its traditional values of equity and opportunity to long-standing challenges such as low pay, inadequate skills and unaffordable housing but its solutions are not fully convincing; at the same time it offers some piecemeal programmes but no connected policies or strategies on, for example, how we will achieve a wealthier, more resilient, more sustainable and more climate-compatible economy.
– TOP, running in its second general election, has an excellent array of innovative, well-researched policies. Shades of some have turned up in some other parties’ platforms, suggesting it is helping the shift to more progressive policies. But it has yet to effectively express them as a suite of integrated policies capable of systemic change. Or in ways attractive to sufficient voters to make it a player in MMP politics.
– The Greens are the boldest of all parties in their proposals for solving our deeply entrenched systemic problems and delivering on our best opportunities. Its policies are the most forward-looking and the best evidenced and argued. And after years of efforts it has just enough voter support to give it some MMP clout. That earned it the opportunity in the parliamentary term just ended to show it is a distinctive and effective member of the government.
How as voters do we choose between them? The best way is to use a clear, concise and credible framework to help us understand our systemic problems and to identify our opportunities to solve them in ways which will greatly fast-forward our progress to the benefit of all New Zealanders.
Regular readers will know my favourite framework for bringing about transformative change fast is from Kate Raworth, the British economist. Starting as a whiteboard doodle of two circles Kate drew in an Oxfam staff meeting in the UK a decade ago, she has developed it into a powerful, insightful and encouraging body of work in her book: Doughnut Economics: Seven ways to think like a 21st century economist.
The outer circle is the ecological ceiling – the nine planetary boundaries codified by the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The inner circle is the social foundation – 12 fundamentals such as education, political voice, energy and food – that people have to have if they are to flourish and contribute to changing their communities, and as communities contribute to global progress. Between the ceiling and floor is “the safe and just space for humanity”, enabled by a “regenerative and distributive economy”.
Raworth lays out seven big shifts we need to make:
– From defining progress as GDP growth, which is an exceptionally narrow economic metric that excludes social and environmental outcomes, to defining it as “meeting the needs of all within the means of the planet.”
– From narrowly defining the economy as a self-contained market, to seeing it embedded in, contributing to and dependent on society and the ecosystem.
– From fixating on the “rational economic man” to appreciating and responding to the diversity of human behaviours which include inter-dependence, reciprocity, and adaptability to the people and circumstances around us.
– From simple supply-demand equilibrium in markets to the dynamic complexity of economies, societies and ecosystems.
– From the flawed hope that growth will reduce inequalities to ensuring all people share in the means of creating wealth and receive their fair share of the rewards.
– From believing growth will enable us to clean up the mess we’ve made to redesigning our use of natural resources, our products, service and economies so they contribute to the regeneration of the ecosystem.
– From addiction to endless growth to creating economies that thrive and deliver for people and the planet without necessarily growing.
Over recent years, Raworth has got to know us in New Zealand and has contributed remotely to a number of conferences here. Last year she made her first visit, speaking to audiences in government, business and wider society with some particular insights about our problems and opportunities. Two examples are this video of her talk at the Just Transition Summit in New Plymouth and this video of her talk at the Auckland Writers’ Festival.
Raworth is back with us today (October 9th) live but from the UK. She is speaking at a pre-election debate in Auckland involving candidates from ACT, National, TOP, Labour and the Greens. The event will give voters the chance to evaluate those parties’ policies using the Doughnut Economics framework. Details of the event, the livestreaming of it on Facebook and the playback of the recording after the event are here.
Two of the speakers in the debate are candidates for the Auckland Central electorate – Helen White of Labour and Chlöe Swarbrick of the Greens. This will give people who watch the debate live or recorded the additional opportunity of weighing those candidates personal and party pitches for this crucial seat.
The case that the Greens have changed the language of the political debate on the economy in New Zealand over recent years is made in this article just published in The Conversation.
“Drawing on a study of 57 million words spoken in parliament between 2003 and 2016, our analysis shows the presence of a Green party has changed the political conversation on economics and environment,” write Geoffrey Ford, Bronwyn Hayward and Kevin Watson, political science and linguistics academics from the University of Canterbury.
The Greens “have effectively disrupted a historical near-consensus among the major parties that economic growth is the only driver of prosperity.”
Offering my judgment as a business journalist of the parties’ policies, leaders and candidates, the best choice for the future of New Zealand in this election is a Labour-Green coalition.
And for Auckland Central voters the best choice is the Greens’ Swarbrick. She will be the most effective representative of the constituency and the most ambitious advocate for the city. Moreover, having a constituency MP will also strengthen the Greens role in the coalition, thereby enhancing the Labour-led government’s goals and delivery.
