The future of Samoa’s next government remains in the balance as the final election votes are counted, with a weeks-long wait for a definitive result – or a legal challenge – among the possible outcomes
After 39 years of one-party rule, Samoan voters may – just – have finally looked elsewhere for political leadership.
In the wake of Friday’s election, Prime Minister Tuilaepa Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi’s Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) is in a dead heat with Faatuatua i Le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST), led by Malielegaoi’s former deputy turned rival Fiame Naomi Mata’afa.
Preliminary results have the two parties on 25 seats apiece in a 51-seat Fono – a stunning result after the HRRP secured 47 out of 50 seats at the 2016 election.
Dr Iati Iati, a senior politics lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, said he and other political observers were surprised by just how well FAST had performed, even though its momentum heading into the election had been well established.
Growing public discontent had reached a tipping point with the passing of three controversial bills that reformed the Samoan constitution, Iati said.
“Certain things are sacrosanct in Samoan society, and customary land rights and the traditional institutions of the family and chiefs or matai, those things you don’t interfere with.”
FAST had eaten into HRPP’s traditional support base in more rural parts of Samoa, while holding strong in the urban areas where opposition parties usually performed well.
Dr Siautu Alefaio, a senior psychology lecturer at Massey University, said the election result had highlighted the power of the Samoan diaspora, with Mata’afa herself paying tribute to their influence through political donations.
“Whatever way it plays out, the people have won.”
While some of the diaspora had left the country decades ago, Alefaio said they had continued to sustain the Samoan economy through remittances and contributions from abroad, while they maintained a direct connection through their extended families.
The Government’s constitutional reforms had clearly struck a chord with many expatriates, as well as those living in Samoa.
“Regardless of the outcome, the people have spoken – they’re not happy with the status quo anymore.”
The political approach of Mata’afa seemed closely aligned to the value Samoans placed on fa‘aaloalo (respect), while it seemed Malielegaoi’s own style of politics was wearing thin with newer generations.
The impact of a stronger opposition had been felt before the votes were even counted, Alefaio said, with people turning out in their masses in a way they never had before.
“Whatever way it plays out, the people have won.”
There would be high expectations on MPs to follow through and deliver on what their constituents had asked of them, she said.
The preliminary outcome has left independent candidate Tuala Tevaga Iosefo Ponifasio in a potential king- or queen-maker position.
Iati said Ponifasio, a lawyer by training, had “not only got one foot in the traditional side of things, but he’s also versed in law and politics from a Western perspective”.
The MP would listen carefully to his supporters and their preferences before making a decision, he said.
But the final distribution of seats could change, with at least 10 electorates having a preliminary ‘winner’ with a margin of less than 100 votes.
Iati said it was likely the final election results could be drawn out over several weeks, with neither Malielegaoi nor Mata’afa wanting to “count their chickens before they’ve hatched”.
Some form of legal challenge may also be on the table, with Malielegaoi having accused FAST of breaching election laws (before the election, he ordered a commission of inquiry into Mata’afa and three FAST MPs over allegations of treason).
Asked by Newsroom about the election outcome, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said there was “a bit of water to go under the bridge in terms of process” but she was confident New Zealand-Samoa ties would not be affected either way.
“When it comes to the future, whatever the final outcome is, New Zealand’s relationship with both candidates, including the incumbent and challenger, is very strong.”
Ardern was reluctant to comment on the claims of electoral law breaches, but said she was confident Samoa’s judiciary would be able to resolve any disputes as it had in past elections.
Elder statesman or the winds of change
Dr Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, said Mata’afa held close ties to New Zealand, having been educated in Wellington.
Her father, Prime Minister Fiame Mata’afa Faumuina Mulinu’u II, has also signed the Treaty of Friendship between New Zealand and Samoa in 1962.
“She very well may have high expectations of the relationship with New Zealand and challenge those aspects of the bilateral relationship which do not serve Samoa or the region,” Powles said, noticing Mata’afa had previously criticised Australia’s “patronising attitude” towards Samoa and its relationship with China.
She believed Samoa’s standing within the Pacific would be unaffected no matter who took office.
Malielegaoi was considered “an elder statesman of the region”, but Mata’afa appealed to a younger generation and women as part of “the winds of change we are seeing across the Pacific with respect to greater demands for representation, accountability of leaders and so forth”.
Iati said one of the biggest questions of a FAST government could be how it approached relations with other partners in the region.
While Malielegaoi had decades of experience in dealing with Pacific geopolitics, it was less clear what to expect from a different administration.
