LISTEN: The global climate change summit starts soon. Commitments by governments might disappoint, but civil society, the private sector and new technologies might not, says a Kiwi expert.
Deadlock, or at least under-achievement, is the likely political outcome of the COP26 global climate negotiations beginning in Glasgow this coming weekend, says Adrian Macey, the former veteran New Zealand climate diplomat, in a wide-ranging interview with Newsroom.
But don’t despair, he says. The Paris Agreement in 2015 set nations on their decarbonising journeys, with greater or lesser ambitions among them. The real action now is coming from corporate and civil society players and the fast-evolving technologies and economics they are deploying to meet their climate goals.
Thus, ever greater pledges and targets to cut emissions is not the true measure of success at this and future negotiations. The crucial test of success is the accelerating pace of transitions to climate compatible sectors, economies and societies around the world.
“What is your transition plan should be a much more important question to ask countries,” Macey says. “Not how much money you’re giving to developing countries…or what are your targets by year X or Y?”
LISTEN to Rod Oram’s interview with Adrian Macey here:
However, the Glasgow negotiations will likely make progress on the UN’s rules, for example, or carbon markets and the financial contributions by governments of developed countries to developing countries. But those are becoming less important because of emerging bilateral carbon agreements “between coalition of the willing” countries, for example, and the rapid expansion of private sector capital flows into clean technologies around the world.
Glasgow will also be notable for a greater emphasis on methane compared with previous negotiations, Macey says. The US and EU are seeking support from other countries for a 30 percent cut in methane by 2030. But they are pushing for action on the oil and gas sources of the highly potent greenhouse gas, not the agriculture ones, he adds.
Cutting short-lived methane would slightly help slow the rate of global heating. But such action is only valid if there are simultaneously large reductions in C02 because it is the levels of that long-lived gas which will determine our climate future, he says.
“There would be quite a lot of sense in New Zealand signing up” to the US-EU alliance, as long as we emphasised the importance of the CO2 cuts and we highlighted our work underway on the science of and practical approaches to reducing agricultural sources of methane.
Macey has attended every COP bar one since 2005 with three roles over the years: as New Zealand’s climate ambassador and chief negotiator, then as vice-chair and later chair of the Kyoto Protocol, the predecessor to the Paris Agreement; then latterly as a civil society delegate.
Since his first COP in Montreal in 2005, the annual conferences have expanded dramatically in scale and complexity, in both the political negotiations and the civil society programmes accompanying them. Whereas 5,000 people went to Montreal, some 25,000 people are heading to Glasgow.
The Copenhagen COP in 2009, for example, was a failure because poor preparations and inadequate chairing undermined the very high expectations set for it. In contrast, the Durban COP in 2011 was rewarding because it paved the way for the Paris Agreement in 2015. Moreover, New Zealand made significant diplomatic and negotiating contributions to the success of both those COPs.
Looking to the Glasgow negotiations, he offers in this Newsroom interview a guide to the trajectory of them and key aspects to watch for in the civil society events.
Macey remains deeply involved in climate issues at home and abroad serving, for example, as a senior associate at the Victoria University of Wellington Institute of Policy Studies and as an adjunct professor at the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute.
While he’ll take a keen interest in progress at Glasgow, he reckons he’s been to enough COPs over the years. So, he’ll be at home in Wellington “cultivating my garden most of the time.”
